Inflation in Lima's Metropolitan Area likely remained in negative territory in May at -0.03% due to declining food product prices and electricity rates, a survey conducted by Andina news agency revealed Tuesday.
The poll reflects banks and analysts' views on Lima's consumer price index (CPI) for the fifth month, with estimates ranging from -0.30% to 0.19%.
The forecast is in line with Peru's Central Reserve Bank (BCR), which on Monday forecast —nationwide— negative inflation for May at -0.4%.
"Prices turned around, and we hope to end the year with an inflation rate of 2.3%, which is within BCR's target range," BCR Governor Julio Velarde projected.
Negative inflation factors
In this sense, BBVA Research Principal Economist Francisco Grippa pointed to a downward revision in food prices, which continued to fall in May after the temporary hike triggered by recent "Coastal El Niño" phenomenon disasters.
"We also saw a drop in electricity rates in early May, as well as lower vehicle fuel prices," he affirmed.
Surveyed experts projected annualized inflation at 3.2%-3.5% in May, still above BCR's 1%-3% target but below April's (3.69%).
Survey results were as follows:
| Peruvian Bank Association (Asbanc) | -0.10% |
| BBVA Continental Bank | 0.05% |
| Phase Consultores | -0.30% |
| Scotiabank | -0.09% |
| Inteligo | 0.04% |
| Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) | 0.19% |
Median: -0.03%
Average:-0.04%
It is worth noting Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) will release official inflation data on June 1.
(END) CNA/JJN/DHT/MVB
Published: 5/30/2017