Focus Economics Consensus Forecast (LatinFocus) raised its year-end growth forecast for Peru to 3.9% from 3.9% projected in November, driven by traditional exports performance and household expenditure.
Peru’s 4.4% GDP rate for the third quarter overshot LatinFocus panelists’ expectations of 3.7% and was above second quarter’s performance (3.7%).
“This positive result was mainly thanks to robust private consumption and strong external demand,” read the December’s publication.
Mineral shipments, mainly those of copper, resulted in strong export readings.
October figures
Mining and hydrocarbon sector saw a 15.58% increase from the same month a year before, driven by higher metallic mining subsector production (21.56%), mainly that of copper and molybdenum, Peru’s National Statistics and Informatics Institute (INEI) reported on December 1.
The fishing sector grew 3.43% in October compared to the same month las year, underpinned by higher catches of species for direct human consumption (3.61%), especially those sold as canned (106.24%), frozen (4.09%) and cured (3.97%) products.
Both the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCR) and the Economy and Finance Ministry (MEF) project 4% growth rates for this year, the latter through its Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework for 2017-2019.
2017 Projections
For 2017, the Latinfocus panel expects the economy to increase 4.2%, as a result of strong external demand and Government efforts to boost private investment.
The 2017 estimate is lower than projections made by MEF (4.8%) and BCR (4.5%), but higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 4.1%.
Focus Economics also noted President Kuczynski’s meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, where several agreements were signed to enhance bilateral ties.
APEC took place in November in the Peruvian capital, Lima, and brought foreign politicians and financial leaders together.
(END) MMG/JJN/RMB
Published: 12/6/2016